Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus.com, said investors should treat the $78,000 to $80,000 range as a decision band, with ETF inflows supporting demand while macro risks remain elevated.
Bitcoin moved back toward the $80,000 level on May 4, 2026, with BTC trading near $80,099, up 2.51 percent over 24 hours and carrying a market capitalisation of about $1.60 trillion.
According to Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus.com, the move is significant because Bitcoin has crossed the $78,100 True Market Mean, a level that had acted as a near term ceiling in mid April.
The immediate trading range is now centred around support at $78,000 to $78,100, followed by a broader support zone between $74,000 and $76,000. Resistance remains clustered between $80,100 and $81,000. A sustained hold above $78,100 would indicate that the market has absorbed part of the overhead supply from short term holders.
On chain indicators suggest that the market has not yet entered a euphoric phase. An April 15 reading showed short term holder supply in profit at 43.2 percent, while the 30 day EMA of the realised profit loss ratio stood at 1.16. This points to improving sentiment, although investors continue to sell into strength.
ETF flows have supported the recent recovery. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows of $663.9 million on April 17, $238.4 million on April 20, $335.8 million on April 22, and $629.8 million on May 1. The weaker phase came between April 27 and April 29, when ETFs saw outflows of $263.2 million, $89.7 million, and $137.6 million.
The macro backdrop remains uncertain. The U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates at 3.50 percent to 3.75 percent on April 29, while inflation risk linked to the Iran war and oil prices above $100 a barrel continued to weigh on rate cut expectations.
Altcoins also traded higher, but the broader market remained Bitcoin led. Ethereum was near $2,363, XRP around $1.41, BNB near $625.80, Solana around $84.60, and Tron near $0.33.
Subburaj said investors should treat the $78,000 to $80,000 range as a decision band rather than confirmation of a breakout. He added that ETF inflows above $600 million on strong days indicate institutional demand, but elevated macro risks ahead of the May 12 U.S. CPI print call for caution.
He advised investors to consider staggered entries instead of chasing short term rallies near resistance, with focus on liquidity, macro data, and position sizing rather than momentum alone.
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