Mumbai- Amit Shah and J.P.Nadda are aggressive frontiers of BJP having look at keeping eyes on Andhra Pradesh and retain Gujarat . In the 2017 Gujarat elections, things changed in the tough battle between BJP and Congress and associates Hardik Patel, and Jignesh Mevani. Consistently BJP has been ruling in Gujarat for more than 26 years, which is a record itself. After 1995, Congress spreads in different troop anti-incumbency had worked for BJP. It is important for BJP to recover the loss by concentrating on constituency especially in southern Gujarat and Kutch.
Rahul Gandhi, Hardik Patel, Jignesh Mewani, and Alpesh Thakor created a strong presence and election campaign against Modi and BJP. This becomes national news just before the 2019 general election. People feel that will these boys can defeat BJP in Modi’s stronghold. In reality, many strong constituencies of the BJP had lost to Congress. Stiff competition from Congress and Hardik Patel made this election memorable. Congress was thinking of defeating BJP in Gujarat so it could help Congress to get hold back in pan India. But in reality, that does not happen as is expected. Rahul Gandhi has majorly relied on Hardik Patel and Jignesh Mewani. Congress used Patidar, Dalit, Kshatriya, and other communities, including minorities. But the end result work not for the party but a considerable in fact, the immense increase in seats of Congress from 32 to 82.
Rahul Gandhi also tried to improve his performance in the Gujarat election with the helping assurance of the Patidar reservation (Patidar is the most politically prominent community in Gujarat.)But on Election Day, Patidar votes were divided and polarized between Congress and BJP. Significant votes of leva votes turned to support for BJP, and Kadva Patidar votes turned for Congress. Also, Congress tried social engineering, but not much worked, primarily in Baroda, Ahmedabad, and surrounding areas. BJP gets success in northern Gujarat. Last round entry of Amit Shah and More than ten rallies save the BJP government in Gujarat.
Strong influences of Modi in Gujarat become a factory in Hindutva. A brand Modi worked after that in northern and western belts very well. A Hardik Patel challenged Modi, which became national news in India. The entire opposition praised Hardik Patel for his rising popularity across India. But Modi’s PR strategy had worked for Modi and BJP. The late entry into the political spectrum by Senior Congress leader Mani Shankar Ayer in the third phase of the election changed everything. His comments on Modi become the winning edge for Modi to take on Congress in his speech. That also affected Congress by more than 15 seats at the last stage.
To talk about the political situation today, the Gujarat assembly is vital for BJP to gain momentum for the 2024 generational election. It will gain a strong base of BJP to come into power again 3rd time. Congress and Aam Aadmi Party have eyes on the Gujarat election to raise their importance for the upcoming election. Recently Hardik Patel working president of Gujarat Congress left Congress and became a big hole for the party in Gujarat. But again, Hardik’s credibility is at stake for his entry into BJP for self-interest. Congress is trying to focus on winning seats in the last election and trying to focus on promising seats. In contrast, BJP is trying to focus on lost seats in the previous elections and seats lost by fewer margins in 2017.
Aam Aadmi Party is a new entrant in the Gujarat elections. AAP already gain momentum by winning Punjab. The rising popularity and marketing mix of Kejriwal of Delhi Model is trying to tackle Modi’s Gujarat Model. There is nothing to lose for Aam Aadmi Party. They already have a win-win situation, but as Congress and BJP are concerned, the rising popularity of the Aam Aadmi Party is a threat two both other parties. Aam Aadmi Party’s National convenor Arvind Kejriwal is trying to challenge BJP to become an alternative and keep aside Congress from the political rat race. For Congress, it is unclear whether to fight focus on BJP or AAP.
The recent allegation of the raid in the office of the Aam Aadmi Party raised many question marks and pointed out to ruling BJP for allegedly behind back conspirator by AAP. The Congress is currently focusing on the Bharat Jodo Yatra. The impact of Bharat Jodo on rural Gujarat constituencies is interesting for the upcoming election. Amit Shah and J.P.Nadda might believe in taking advantage of the recent custodial arrest and bail of Teesta Setalwad conspiracy case against PM Modi. However, Gujarat riots are always on the radar of politicians for addressing election speeches.
The response of Patidar and the OBC community to BJP or against the BJP will be a decisive factor. What Rahul Gandhi and Arvind Kejriwal strike at BJP will be essential to see to understand major points for elections. Will it be on the development agenda, or will the communal line decide Gujarat’s future? The poll booth management of CM Bhupendra Patel or Congress will be cutting edge? Simply it will work great for BJP to win the election for a rehearsal for 2024, and for Congress and AAP, winning the Gujarat election will help them increase party strength and bargaining power for a united opposition front.
This opinion article written by Mohit Soman, Senior Journalist Prittle Prattle News.
(The opinion expressed in the article are personal )
