MMR’s . Knight Frank – NAREDCO Report on ‘The Grand Revival of Mumbai’s Residential Market’ cited that despite headwinds, Mumbai Metropolitan Region’s residential demand continues to grow in 2022.
In just 9 months of the year 2022, the city has achieved sales volume of 65,650 home units which is 8% higher than the annual pre-pandemic levels of 60,943 units recorded in 2019.
This velocity has been achieved in a year marked by 140 bps repo rate hike (until 29th September 2022), levy of additional 1% metro cess and no stamp duty cut benefits.
INR 10 mn and above ticket size gaining traction in 2022
The percentage of housing sales for properties with ticket sizes ranging from INR 10-20 million increased from 16% in 2021 to 18% in 2022 YTD, while premium housing gained traction, with the share of houses with ticket sizes beyond INR 20 mn increasing from 6% in 2021 to 10% in 2022 YTD.
This demonstrates the home buyer’s preference for larger-sized houses. However, demand for homes with ticket sizes ranging from INR 5-10 mn has decreased from 30% in 2021 to 22% in 2022 YTD.
With a share of 29%, demand for residential properties with ticket sizes of INR 2.5-5 mn has been stable over the year. Properties priced under INR 2.5 million showed a modest increase totaling to 20% of the total annual sales.
From the perspective of Q3 2022, According to the research, demand for residences with ticket sizes of INR 10 million and beyond has increased.
The INR 10-20 mn ticket size category saw a 19% share take-up, up from 18% in Q2 2022, while the above 20 mn ticket size category saw an 11% share take-up, up from 10% in Q2 2022.
The demand for the 5-10 million category remained stable. MMR showed a drop in demand for properties under INR 5 million, resulting in a 47% share contribution.
“The MMR residential market is a story of sustained growth over the last eight quarters. This sales momentum has been the result of a combination of factors such as – attractive pricing, lowest home loan interest rates and State Government stimulus, all ensuring that home affordability is in an attractive zone for buyers. However, the biggest change has been the buyer’s perception which is positively tilted towards home ownership. We expect the core strength of the market to remain intact in the future, despite the headwinds created by the geo-political situation and their economic impacts, albeit the factors of affordability are not breached abruptly and are in tandem with growth in income.”Shishir Baijal, Chairman & Managing Director, Knight Frank India said,
Supporting housing demand, the supply of properties priced between INR 10 and 20 million increased significantly from 14% in 2021 to 22% in 2022 YTD.
The luxury category houses also saw an increase in supply, increasing from 7% to 11% of total debuts. The ticket size of INR 7.5-10 mn decreased its proportion of launches from 18% in 2021 to 11% in 2022 YTD.
From the perspective of Q3 2022, the report highlighted that the supply of housing having ticket sizes ranging from INR 2.5-5 mn recorded the largest share take up of 33%, followed by ticket sizes ranging from INR 10-20 mn having a share take up of 32%.
Residential value surges by 6% YoY in Q3 2022; Weighted Average Price recorded at INR 7170 per sq ft.
Changing global scenario leading to a rise in raw material prices coupled with the robust sales momentum encouraged developers to opt for price rise in 2022. The weighted average price in MMR is reported to be INR 7170 sq ft.
Sharing the context to the price movement since 2010, the report cited that weighted average prices in MMR recorded an upward movement since 2010 and peaked in 2016, recording an average housing price of INR 8120 per sq ft.
The increase coincides with a drop in property sales between 2010 and 2016. In 2014, the weighted average house price increased by 10% year on year. After 2017, house prices in the MMR region began to fall.
The adoption of RERA and GST coincided with the timetable. Turnaround was witnessed in 2020 where the housing sales picked up on account of stamp duty waiver and all-time low mortgage rates and the price value has been moving into higher trajectory since then.
Central suburbs emerged as a preferred market in 2022:
Central suburbs are the only market that recorded a substantial YoY growth in 2022 YTD of 33%.
In Q3 2022, the top location for homebuyers is the peripheral central and western suburbs.
Housing demand in the third quarter of 2022 was primarily centred in the periphery suburban micro markets. In Q3 2022, peripheral central suburbs account for 22% of housing demand, while peripheral western suburbs account for 18%.
“The Mumbai Metropolitan Region, which is constantly changing, has seen the most rapid growth in the real estate sector and has seen a lot of change in the recent years, and we, at NAREDCO Maharashtra have always been at the forefront of proactive sector assessment and have worked closely with government bodies to ensure that the ‘Housing For All Initiative, which aims to promote affordable housing in the country, is carried out with the formation of new units across the state.”Mr. Sandeep Runwal- President NAREDCO Maharashtra and MD Runwal Developers, said,
“NAREDCO Maharashtra has addressed and discussed a variety of real estate-related issues, including infrastructure development and construction material costs,”he added.
THE BIG INFRASTRUCTURE PUSH – MMR
International property consultant Knight Frank India along with NAREDCO today highlighted “THE BIG INFRASTRUCTURE PUSH”. It assesses the real estate impact of the massive INR 2.1 trillion of transport infrastructure projects currently underway in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) excluding Navi Mumbai International Airport.
The report analyses their impact in terms of the locations/ corridors that are likely to see the most traction in terms of real estate development due to the improved connectivity.
The report has identified 20 locations as the next real estate growth corridors in MMR as a direct outcome of the infrastructure development.
Primarily the result of approximately 250 km of Metro lines and 70 km of road projects cumulatively worth over Rs 2.1 trillion (INR 2.1 lakh crore) at various stages of construction in the region.
The extent of real estate traction in the resulting locations has been evaluated based on the availability of land for greenfield development or the redevelopment potential that the catchment offers.
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