Industry Leaders Discuss Budget’s Impact on Capital Markets, Debt, and Investments
The Union Budget 2024-2025, presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, has introduced several measures aimed at strengthening India’s financial sector. The budget 2024-2025 focuses on fostering sustainable growth, enhancing the stability of financial markets, and promoting investments. Here’s what industry leaders have to say about the budget’s implications for the finance sector.
Quote on Capital Markets from Mr. Shripal Shah, MD & CEO, Kotak Securities
“This Union Budget 2024-2025 sets a clear vision for India’s economic future, prioritizing both growth and fiscal responsibility. The increase in the tax rate on long-term capital gains and short-term capital gains on equity, along with the increase in STT on futures and options, are aimed at moderating currently heightened activity levels and fostering a more sustainable pace of growth in the stock market. We anticipate a small period of adjustment as the market adapts to these new tax measures, but this will ultimately contribute to a sustainable investment landscape with balanced and orderly growth of the capital market. Overall, this budget instills confidence in India’s growth trajectory and lays a strong foundation for the future. We remain optimistic about the long-term prospects for the Indian economy and capital markets.”
Quote on Debt Markets from Mr. Deepak Agrawal, CIO-Debt, Kotak Mahindra AMC
“The budget signals the continuity of the strong India macro story by pegging the fiscal deficit for FY 25 at 4.9% lower than market expectation and guiding for below 4.5% for FY 26. The budget numbers are credible given that nominal GDP growth rate is retained at 10.5%. Extra revenues from RBI have been prudently used by increasing total expenditure only by ~ 50,000 crores, while keeping capital expenditure constant and the balance being utilized in reducing the fiscal deficit. As bulk of the increase in expenditure outlay is in the form of asset creation (houses/roads etc), the budget is non-inflationary and would provide comfort to RBI on the inflation front. Commitment of fiscal consolidation in the year ahead, improves chances of India Rating upgrade in FY 2026. Given comfort on the Current Account Deficit, duty on gold/silver import was reduced to 6%.”
Quote on Investment from Mr. Nikunj Agarwal, Head – Fund Raise, Finance & Lending Alliances, Propelld
“The Rs 1.48 lakh crore announced in Budget 2024 for education and employment and skill enhancement is welcoming news. The financial support for loans up to Rs 10 lakh for students aiming for higher education in domestic institutions. Further, it was announced that a guarantee from a government-promoted Fund will be available Loans up to ₹7.5 lakh amount. Such initiatives in the education and skilling financing sectors are widely praised and can be seen as crucial steps towards fostering the potential of the youth, who are integral to the future growth of our nation. These measures are expected to play a pivotal role in advancing our country’s socio-economic development as a whole.”
Mr. Uma Shankar Patro, Senior VP – Finance, InfoVision
“InfoVision applauds the government’s commitment to advancing innovation and digital transformation with the allocation of 5% of the Universal Services Obligation Fund towards telecommunications technology R&D. The renaming of this fund to Digital Bharat Nidhi highlights the critical role of a digital-first strategy in driving economic growth. We are particularly encouraged by the introduction of the Jan Vishwas Bill 2.0 and the incentives for states to adopt Business Reforms Action Plans and embrace digitalization. These initiatives are set to significantly enhance the ease of doing business and will have a profound positive impact on the IT sector, further strengthening India’s digital economy. InfoVision fully supports these progressive measures and remains dedicated to contributing to and benefiting from these transformative efforts.”
Quote on Bond Market from Mr. Vishal Goenka, Co-Founder of IndiaBonds.com
“The budget demonstrated financial prudence with expected fiscal deficit target now 4.9% for FY24-25. This is constructive overall for the bond yields. The focus on infrastructure spending shall further increase issuance in infrastructure bonds. Listed bonds continue their favorable treatment for capital gains versus unlisted bonds and debt mutual funds.”
Quote on Economic Strategy from Mr. Nitin Rao, CEO, InCred Wealth
“Budget build up for long term measures is positive. Many key areas have a positive build-up without impacting the fiscal position. Taxation increases seem negative, though was anticipated. Markets will stabilize after the negative shocks in the short term and track the progress of the country in the medium term.”
Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates Ltd., commented, “Domestic benchmark indices opened with a gap up on Tuesday, in line with global cues. As a result, the Nifty opened positively, but after initial gains, the index witnessed heavy profit booking due to volatility surrounding the Union Budget. However, the market managed to digest the negative factors and concluded the day on a marginal negative note at 24,479 levels. Technically, the index on a daily scale formed a hammer candlestick pattern. As per this pattern, today’s low of 24,074 will act as strong support for the index. On the upside, the high of the bearish engulfing candle is placed near 24,855. Until the index conquers these levels, a sell-on-rise strategy needs to be adopted in Nifty.
The Bank Nifty index opened with a gap up but was unable to sustain at higher levels and witnessed heavy profit booking. As a result, Bank Nifty settled the day on a negative note at 51,778 levels. Technically, the index on a daily scale is forming a lower top and lower bottom pattern, indicating weakness. On the upside, 52,000 and 52,550 will act as resistance points for Bank Nifty, while on the downside, 51,200 and 51,000 will act as key support points.”
Lakshmi Iyer, CEO-Investment & Strategy, Kotak Alternate Asset Managers Limited, shared her perspective, “The budget has ensured fiscal discipline, while ensuring impetus to growth is not compromised upon. Pragmatism has prevailed across key announcements seen. Change in capital gains tax (increase) and increase in STT may be a near-term sentiment spoiler, however, as market focus moves to growth trajectory and earnings potential, the medium to long-term case for equities remain intact.
No increase in government borrowing program and the sustained path to fiscal prudence could mean lower interest rates in the coming quarters. FPI continues to be net buyers in both equities and fixed income, which also adds to the liquidity flows from external sources.”
